This is the big question facing not only the
Council and its partners on the newly established Croydon Sustainable Economic
Renewal Board (1), but every employer, every worker, every trade union branch,
every community and voluntary organisation whether they employ staff or not.
The crisis across the UK has shown:
· The
extent of inequalities and the particular adverse effects on the low paid and
BAME communities have suffered most.
· The
Government’s job retention support scheme has only supported 25-30% of
employees. (2)
· That
a big increase in working from home and digital team conferencing
· An
increase in the one use plastic e.g. in the increase in home deliveries.
· An
increase in on-line shopping which may continue adversely affecting the
viability of retail.
· Inadequacy
of Universal Credit.
· The
scale of the digital divide.
Many large businesses are going into
administration, sometimes like shopping centres INTU due to previous problems
exacerbated by COVID. Smaller businesses, particular small shop keepers on low
profit margins are likely not to reopen. There is a threat across the country
to the future of theatres, concert halls and museums.
In Croydon we know very little about the economic
effect of the crisis on the range of mainly small and medium size businesses,
and the effect of the crisis on inequalities. We need some very fast analysis
of:
· the
experience of every business in the Borough which will require surveying and
their views on their future;
· the
adverse effects of known existing inequalities. (3)
The latter will need to include the post code
analysis of COVID cases and heir link to housing conditions. Whether there is a
correlation with multiple occupation, high density, lack of gardens, and small
room sizes, and repair conditions.
As part of the Growth Plan the Council is developing a framework to gauge and
monitor the social impact of the town centre regeneration programme, and to build
evidence towards social infrastructure objectives, particularly in relation to
the engagement and outreach required to develop the Clocktower and Town Hall
refurbishment project, and for testing proposals for new community spaces and
children’s play provision. In the light of the COVID crisis’s particular
adverse impact on North Croydon, a similar study should be carried out on the
planning and redevelopment being undertaken in its various districts.
The 2021 Census will provide important evidence as
to the nature of the growing population and its diversity which will be able to
underpin development of social infrastructure from about 2013.
CTUC
Working Party 2014
Back in 2014 a Croydon TUC (CTUC) working party,
which I chaired, analysed the on the new Labour administration’s Council’s
local economy Growth Plan. (4)
The Working Party was
concerned that while the Vision in the Plan was admirable, a set of
contradictions was likely to prevent it being achieved. It was particularly
concerned that forces outside the Council’s control such as private developers,
rental and sale prices, the increasing role of private landlords, the
continuing effect of the austerity measures, would simply increase the
inequalities and largely benefit newcomers to Croydon rather than existing
residents who have a wide variety of needs which are not being met.
It recommended:
·
in-depth analysis of social
disadvantage and the barriers to overcoming it;
·
the establishment of a University
Centre for Croydon Affairs to provide independent robust research evidence to
underpin future policy and strategy development;
These remain relevant
today. The proposed Centre could be set up as part of the South Bank University
operation in the Borough.
The Council never
engaged seriously with the CTUC. After being challenged at the Whitgift CPO
Inquiry about this the main officer, now Chief Executive reluctantly agreed to
a meeting, but declined to comment on the recommendations. In a follow-up email the CTUC suggested that
‘The main challenge is how to reduce inequalities without driving those
experiencing them out of the Borough.’ (5)
The
Financial and Funding Crisis
In its creative response to the crisis the Council
has spent much more money than it is receiving back from the Government. This
means that its budget for 2020/21 is now being re-looked at, with the
likelihood of cuts to services and staff in order to meet the legal requirement
for a balanced budget. The easy targets will be those areas of expenditure
which the Council does not have to legally provide, such as culture (inc.
libraries). However, it is these services which are important for people’s
health and well-being, and cultural activities are an important part of the
local economy. Recent research has also shown that Labour controlled Councils
were more adversely effected by Government funding cuts from 2010 than
Conservative controlled ones. There is talk that some may go bankrupt. It is to
be hoped that this does not happen to Croydon.
While the Prime Minister has announced that the
economy will be re-built by infrastructure projects, such as school buildings,
hospitals, roads, transport, housing and tree planting, the sum of £5bn is tiny
when it is spread across the country, when we remember that the original Westfield
scheme was costed at £1bn.
Other
Funding Uncertainties
Croydon faces further funding uncertainties:
· The
London Mayor is having to consider major cuts to his budget. This could mean
that funding for schemes in Croydon may be ended. Will he safeguard the money
for Borough of Culture 2023 which will play such an important role in not only
economic recovery but in well-being and health and optimism for the future. (6)
· Transport
for London has lost a major amount of revenue and will continue to do so. Will
its funds for schemes in Croydon be cut?
The
Need for a Croydon Bank
Even if there are Council cuts it has a massive
revenue flow. The NHS, Croydon College, the Academies and Free Schools, local
businesses, national and international firms operating in Croydon collectively
generate a massive amount of income. Back in 2014 the CTUC recommended the
creation of a Croydon Bank to pool that money, retaining much private sector money
working inside the local economy rather than being sent elsewhere and using its
profits to provide finance for Borough projects. It is urgent for this to be
considered and set up.
The
Growth Plan as at February 2020
Since 2014 there has
been creative and lateral thinking in the development of the Council’s Growth
Plan local economic strategy, as set out in the report to the Cabinet meeting
on 24 February as part of setting the Budget for 2020/21.
The report provided a lot of detailed information
on what had happening over the previous last year and how things were being
developed especially in relation to culture, especially in the Town Centre.
Although there will
always be legitimate debate about the relationship between to-down/bottom-up,
engagement and partnership as programmes develop, the report had much in that
was welcome. (7)
The Context
Since 2012 Croydon has
seen an 8% growth in population; 11% increase in under-16s; 20% increase in
over-65s; BAME residents are now over half of Croydon’s population. This means
that a large percentage of the population will not be economically active, and
will need education, cultural, play and health services. This poses serious
funding challenges. The population will continue to grow over the next 20 years
as new homes are built to meet Government and Mayor of London targets.
The
Economic Realities
The Growth Plan report to the Cabinet in November
last year painted some of worrying economic realities.
(1) There
is a dearth of major employers with over 250 workers. While the number of
businesses in Croydon rose 33% from 2013-18 to 14,675, 93% are classified as
micro-businesses, and 99.7% as small and medium-sized enterprises SMEs.’
(2) The
main employment sectors are retail, business & administration and health
& social care, of which retail, hospitality and health & social care
that pay low wages.
(3) There is
a ‘disparity between the earnings of residents living in Croydon and working
outside of the Borough, and the pay rate of jobs in the Borough. Those working
outside of the borough are likely to earn more than residents living and
working in the borough.’
(4) ‘The
unemployment rate in Croydon is the third highest in London at 7.2% (Annual
Population Survey). Many of those who are workless have multiple and complex
barriers to work and have significant challenges to accessing and sustaining
work.’
(5) There
is a high level of in-work families in poverty.
(6) 25% of
those in work are being paid below the Living Wage.
(7) 16,600
families were in work and claiming tax credits.
(8) ‘Borough-wide
data masks the extreme differences between various parts of the borough and
sometimes between neighbouring wards.’
(9) ‘The
impact of Brexit is yet to be fully felt on the economy in Croydon. It is
likely to have disproportionate impact on sectors where EU nationals fill high
volume vacancies including construction, retail and hospitality and health
& social care.’
Before the COVID-19 crisis happened it was
questionable whether the updated growth strategy approved by the Cabinet in
November was capable of meeting these challenges, especially with the mothballing
of the Westfield shopping development. The COVID crisis will have aggravated
most of these challenges.
The Climate Change Crisis
One of the advantages of
the COVID lockdown has been the reduction in vehicle emissions and a significant
fall in air pollution. This is likely to rise again as lockdown eases. Given
the limitations on the use of public transport more people will have to use
their vehicles that they might have before the crisis. Yet the climate change
crisis has enormous economic implications. This is why the Council recognised
that making a contribution to tackling the crisis was urgent.
CTUC welcomed the
embedding of the climate change emergency into the Growth Plan strategy. The
Council says that its ‘plans for growth and regeneration will
incorporate improvements that can have the most impact on reducing or
mitigating future climate change. In particular this includes a focus on
investment in more sustainable transport, improving sustainable energy supplies
and networks and achieving high environmental standards in new construction and
refurbishment projects.’
CTUC has also welcomed the report of the Council
initiated Citizens Assembly on Climate Change, and the establishment of the
Climate Change Commission, although it regrets the absence of invitations to
trade union members to take part. Hopefully the Commission will assist in producing
creative ideas for strengthening what the Council can do in the future.
Property
Development/’Regeneration’
|
The ‘whole process
of urban redevelopment is regressively redistributive and it is contributing,
possibly on a very significant scale, to wealth inequality.’ (Peter Ambrose
and Bob Colenutt. The Property Machine.
Penguin Special. 1975. p. 142)
|
Although that
quotation was 45 years ago it still resonates today.
Reliance on property
development (so called ‘regeneration’) still seems to be the Council’s
preferred main economic driver. It has no control over developers as evidenced
by the Westfield fiasco.
The context in which
the economic strategy has to be implemented has changed dramatically even
before the COVID crisis with the final decision to leave the European Union this
coming December and the priority that needs to be given to the climate change
crisis.
The COVID-19 Crisis
Since the Growth Plan
update in February Croydon’s economy has been through a period of shut down
because of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis began, with large numbers of employees
being furloughed, some made redundant, some unemployed and some working from
home. The continuation of basic economic activity: food retailing, shopping and
other goods home delivery, refuse and street cleaning and above all the NHS and
care homes have shown how dependent the majority have been on low paid workers,
a large percentage of whom have been from the BAME communities, and who are
those most effected by inequalities in their lives.
As a direct result of
the COVID crisis other blows to the local economy have included:
·
the putting
of Fairfield Halls into hibernation until next year
·
the
liquidation of the operator of the Council owned Croydon Park Hotel.
Added to:
·
the continued
uncertainty as to the Westfield shopping centre development, whether new plans
will be submitted and whether the Council will see its own alternative plan;
·
the closure
of Debenhams in Centrale run by Westfield’s partner Hammerson.
Other Uncertainties
In addition to the
likely cuts in services and staffing by the Council because of the costs of
dealing with COVID crisis, other uncertainties facing Croydon include:
·
The
possibility of future funding cuts by the Government.
·
The collapse
of many small and medium size businesses reducing business rates income.
·
An increase
in un/underemployment resulting in reduced Council tax and more people on
benefits.
·
Increasing
homelessness as more residents will not be able to afford their private rents.
·
The decision
of the Government to further loosen control over planning by Councils meaning
that new developments are even less likely to meet the economic, housing,
environmental and social needs of Croydon’s residents.
·
The possible
migration back to Europe as the implications of BREXIT take effect from next January.
·
The
potential migration into the UK from Hong Kong following the Government’s
reaction to the new law by the Chinese Government has imposed on the island.
·
The knock-on
effects of deteriorating world economic and environmental developments that had
started even before the COVID-19 crisis.
Is There a Way Forward?
Since every crisis opens
up new opportunities there could be a positive way forward to revive the
Croydon economy. Given the thousands of Croydon based
organisations and individuals involved in running the local economy, there is a
real challenge to working with them so they are taking the necessary actions. Central to this must be:
(1) Measures
to create a resilient, diverse economy, based on
a
thriving community and voluntary sector, strong civic engagement, a strong
public sector, a diverse finance sector, high levels of diversity in the
economy, effective public services, closer integration of land use planning
with economic development, and strong provision for young people. (8
(2) The
further development of the Co-operative Council model, involving a
leadership and an enabling role rather than a command and control one,
especially given the ever decreasing revenue funding it will have available. (8)
(3) The greening of the economy through an
emphasis on developing green jobs such as in recycling and repair for re-use,
market gardening, tree planting (including on tracks of unused land between
railway tracks into East and West Croydon land, energy efficiency and
insulation, solar panel installation, the development Combined Heat and Power
schemes to supply energy to neighbouring buildings, and any additional measures
identified by the Climate Chance Commission.
(4) The
protection of the green environment from building development not associated
with the use of those areas as green spaces or for food growing.
(5) A reduction in reliance on motor vehicles.
(6) Further
development and strengthening of social economy organisations. (8)
(7) The
establishment of a Croydon Bank. (8)
(8) The strengthening of the
existing devolved role of the existing neighbourhood forums comprising
Councillors and local community, services organisations and where possible
businesses, by giving them a meaningful budget, requiring all specialist
officers to report their scheme ideas for the area, and the establishment of
forums in other parts of the Borough.
(9) Every large employer and medium sized
business should be asked to consider its own green and climate change
programme, to publicly announce in Croydon what that is in relation to its
activities in Croydon, including switching any vehicle fleets to electric,
energy efficiency and insulation measures to its buildings.
(10) The
Council should ensure that it develops schemes to collect recyclable waste from
businesses.
(11) Businesses
involved in repairing thrown away goods for recycling and re-use should be
encouraged to work in partnership with the Council’s waste and recycling sites.
(12) Private
landlords should be put under greater pressure to improve energy efficiency and
insulation in the houses they own.
(13) All
community organisations with buildings should be encouraged to adopt an
environmental and climate change plan.
(14) Every
public sector organisation with buildings in the Borough should be requested to
undertake a climate change audit of their buildings.
(15) Every
office based employer should be asked to consider how it will use and adapt its
office accommodation in the post-COVID environment, taking into account the
advantages of office based working, working practices to increase employee
engagement, job satisfaction, retention and productivity (9)
(16) Every
employer should be asked what essential skills needs to has for the future, and
how they can help to train low skilled workers and young people. (10)
(17) That
every employer should be asked to ensure that the work under (15) and (16)
includes examination of the issues of diversity. (11)
(18) CTUC
should encourage all its affiliated branches to report on the effect of the
COVID- crisis on their Croydon work places, and their concerns about future
employment at them.
(19) CTUC
should analyse the ideas developed by the TUC, individual trade unions, the
Labour Party New Green Deal, and the Green Alliance work with trade unions to
assess their relevance to the particular nature of Croydon’s economy,
environmental and climate change challenges, and prepare a brief for its
affiliated branches operating in Croydon based work places, and for submission
to the Croydon
Sustainable Economic Renewal Board and
the Climate Change Commission.
Footnotes
(2) Stefano
Scarpetta, Director of Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, OECD. In Future
of Work supplement. The Guardian. 30
June 2020. p. 2
(4) CTUC. What Kind of Economy do we need in Croydon?
Croydon Council’s Growth Plan and District Centre Investment; Growth For All. A
Commentary with Recommendations.
And also:
(5) The
CTUC’s follow-up email also stated:
‘Despite what you said
about the improvement of District Centres being a political priority we are
unconvinced that the Council is able to do enough to bring real quality of life
changes to existing residents, other than the possibility of improved high street
environments, particularly given the restrictions on key planning issues, such
as the range of retail offer in high streets. In particular we are concerned
that the growing articulation of concerns about the decline of many
neighbourhoods are based on issues which cannot be addressed by money such as
noise, insecurity and congestion which we tried to capture in … the commentary
on the Growth Plan.
Particularly in respect
of District Centres and smaller neighbourhoods we consider that a priority
should be to strengthen the alliance between the Council and local residents
through using some of the mechanisms in the Localism Bill, such a neighbourhood
forum (or District Committees as we called them in the commentary).….
We remain unsure that
there is full understanding of the loss of jobs in the past few years, current and
potential jobs (by sector) is properly understood, and unconvinced that enough
is being done to protect employment sites from residential redevelopment.’
‘Our overriding
impression from the meeting is that the thrust of Council policy and action is
over-whelming pro-developer with no guarantee their schemes will substantially
help current Croydonians. We are concerned that if employers transfer their
office bases into the Town Centre this will simply increase the number of
commuters, unless there is an agreement of offering vacancies to local people.
We fear that many jobs will be in low wage sectors. While there will be an
unknown number of construction jobs created in addition to the Whitgift scheme
(if the CPO is approved), and while training is being set up, the problem is
going to be how to persuade Croydonians to take advantage of that training or
those formerly in construction to return. It is difficult to conceive of enough
locals being recruited and trained, therefore requiring building workers from
elsewhere to commute in.’
The working party also
said that there was so much going on that it was probably urgent for the
Opportunity Area Framework which included the Town Centre and the various
smaller district plans within were up-dated. There was a strong case for doing
this as part of the current Local Plan Review.’ Since then Council has
appointed consultants to review the Framework.
(6) See:
(7) See:
and
(8) This
was included in my three articles on what kind of economy we wanted published
in Croydon Citizen in January 2104.
(9) Stuart Templeton, Head of UK Slack; Darren
Fields, Regional Vice-President, UK & Ireland, Citrix; David Price, CEO and
Wellbeing Expert, Health Assured; Robin Brodie- Cooper, Senior VP, The British
Council for Officers; in The Guardian
Future Jobs supplement. 30 June 2020. pp. 3, 4, 5, 7 & 8
(10) Nicola Inge, Director, Employment &
Skills, Business in the Community. Ditto. p. 6
(11) Derek Irvine, SVP Client Strategy &
Consulting, Workhuman. Ditto. p. 9
